Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 116 | 16 | 331 |
| NYR | 319 | 111 | 16 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:29WSHNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 14:45NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Igor Shesterkin · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 18:46NYRPatrick KanePPAssists: Adam Fox, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 4:09NYRJacob TroubaGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 12:08WSHMatt IrwinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 11:48WSHNic DowdAssists: Dylan Strome, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 17:49NYRJimmy VeseyENAssists: K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.41 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:23WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:07WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:24NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
- P2 12:43NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:58NYRBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:36NYRArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:42NYRNiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Strome – Snively9:31
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Protas8:53
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Backstrom – Smith – Mantha8:45
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Sheary9:34
xG 0.15–0.90 (14%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlexeyev – Sandin2:21
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Irwin – Alexeyev7:43
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin2:07
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Kreider – Trocheck9:13
xG 0.94–0.10 (91%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière9:49
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Zibanejad – Panarin10:11
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte8:43
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller12:50
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Harpur – Schneider10:36
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Mikkola – Fox11:01
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).