Tue, Mar 14, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 111 | 27 | 324 |
| CAR | 110 | 27 | 28 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37CARJaccob SlavinUnassisted · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:19WPGDylan DeMeloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 0:58CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:15CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 4:27WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 9:34CARJack DruryGWGAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 15:38WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:56CARJesperi KotkaniemiENAssists: Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:52CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:47CARStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:47WPGDylan Samberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:43WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:08WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Appleton – Barron8:25
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers13:19
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Gustafsson8:57
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton4:22
xG 0.17–0.19 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Capobianco11:46
xG 0.94–0.38 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Pionk2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg14:40
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi12:13
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 3–0
- Stepan – Noesen – Drury7:33
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:38
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Aho – Puljujarvi – Jarvis11:19
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Coghlan12:07
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:00
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Burns – Slavin18:35
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).