Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 213 | 07 | 227 |
| VAN | 24 | 18 | 27 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35VANPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 6:00VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Conor Garland, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 0:48DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 11:53VANAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Christian Wolanin, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 19:55DALJamie BennPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 4:09VANGuillaume BriseboisAssists: Nils Aman, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 16:58VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:27DALJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:52DALMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:54DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:54VANNoah Juulsen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:54DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:28VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 8:37VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:57VANChristian Wolanin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Domi – Dellandrea5:43
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Olofsson – Kiviranta5:24
xG 0.15–0.10 (58%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:46
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:21
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen16:08
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 23–6goals 1–3
- Suter – Hanley9:33
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell14:26
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:43
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko10:02
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman10:17
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Dries – Kravtsov – Podkolzin6:49
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Hughes13:17
xG 0.88–0.67 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Burroughs – Brisebois3:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:23
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).