Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 16 | 010 | 228 |
| LAK | 014 | 412 | 111 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:54LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Sean Walker, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:06LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 7:06LAKAlex IafalloPPGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 12:14LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 17:02NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Sebastian Aho, Ryan Pulock · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:07LAKQuinton ByfieldENAssists: Matt Roy, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:40NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40LAKRasmus Kupari: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:40NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:10NYIZach Parise: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min
- P3 4:09LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:58LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Horvat11:14
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pageau – Fasching – Engvall5:59
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall2:56
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson5:35
xG 0.09–0.49 (15%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Aho2:51
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson9:45
xG 1.43–1.44 (50%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Romanov2:40
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Kupari – Kaliyev6:30
xG 1.06–0.24 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte10:42
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield14:41
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore13:18
xG 0.98–0.87 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy14:24
xG 1.87–0.42 (82%)attempts 26–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson19:33
xG 0.64–0.77 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Edler – Walker14:00
xG 1.10–1.39 (44%)attempts 17–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).