Wed, Mar 15, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 216 | 34 | 633 |
| ANA | 27 | 08 | 18 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25ANAMax JonesAssists: Cam Fowler, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:24NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Pierre Engvall, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:47ANAKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Trevor Zegras, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:46NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Zach Parise, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 19:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Adam Pelech, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 2:58NYIPierre EngvallGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 9:02NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 12:45NYIZach PariseAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.13 xG6–2
- P3 15:05ANAKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Frank Vatrano, Maxime Comtois · Slap, 0.05 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:16ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:19NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:41NYIAnders Lee: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall13:59
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 4–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching5:48
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:52
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom3:44
xG 0.10–0.06 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson11:14
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock4:09
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech7:24
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Jones – McTavish6:36
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Strome – McGinn – Zegras4:49
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Vatrano – Jones – McTavish5:48
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Strome – Terry – Zegras6:22
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Fowler4:38
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – White13:10
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Harrington – Benoit3:53
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).