Thu, Mar 16, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 18 | 13 | 03 | 2 | 424 |
| NJD | 08 | 114 | 29 | 04 | 1 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 8:59NJDTomas TatarAssists: Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 18:11TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 9:41NJDTimo MeierAssists: Nico Hischier, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:13TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 17:44NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Timo Meier stopped
- 2. TBL Ross Colton scored
- 3. NJD Yegor Sharangovich scored
- 4. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 5. NJD Jesper Boqvist stopped
- 6. TBL Alex Killorn scored
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:22NJDTimo Meier: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:51TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:51TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:03TBLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:08NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:15TBLNick Paul: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Killorn – Cirelli – Jeannot11:42
xG 0.48–0.49 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Colton9:22
xG 0.74–0.88 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel13:35
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:00
xG 0.01–0.52 (2%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak3:10
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Sergachev2:07
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev3:57
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Mercer10:52
xG 1.30–0.45 (74%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Lazar – McLeod – Sharangovich5:57
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Boqvist – Hughes3:15
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes3:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler16:16
xG 1.36–0.75 (65%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Severson – Bahl10:46
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Graves – Marino15:13
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).