Thu, Mar 16, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 09 | 15 | 221 |
| NSH | 09 | 012 | 115 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:13CHILukas ReichelAssists: Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 8:01CHIJoey AndersonGWGAssists: Boris Katchouk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 19:35NSHRoman JosiAssists: Tommy Novak, Philip Tomasino · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:35CHIJujhar Khaira: Interference2 min
- P2 2:33NSHMark Jankowski: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:05CHICaleb Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 13:40CHIAlex Stalock: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Khaira
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKhaira – Anderson – Katchouk11:48
xG 0.80–0.26 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Kurashev – Reichel12:02
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
- Robinson – Entwistle – Hardman7:31
xG 0.06–0.22 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dickinson – Raddysh10:52
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones18:09
xG 1.13–0.42 (73%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Murphy15:49
xG 0.66–0.67 (49%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Zaitsev – Mitchell10:35
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Smith9:26
xG 0.53–0.01 (97%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista7:56
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Glass – Sherwood – Evangelista2:01
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino9:31
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Lauzon10:46
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Josi – Foote2:37
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro3:50
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).