Thu, Mar 16, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Seattle Kraken 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 015 | 18 | 11 | 232 |
| SJS | 010 | 08 | 114 | 00 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:18SJSWilliam EklundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P3 7:03SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Yanni Gourde, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 1:58SEAVince DunnGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:14SEAJaden Schwartz: Interference2 min
- P1 5:52SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:54SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:54SEAJohn Hayden: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:32SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:08SJSMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P3 1:18SEARyan Donato: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 9:50SJSWilliam Eklund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:56
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hayden – Tanev – Geekie4:14
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:33
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev2:48
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:20
xG 1.28–0.56 (70%)attempts 28–15goals 1–0
- Schultz – Megna10:23
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:36
xG 0.18–0.81 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Labanc – Eklund9:26
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Couture – Zetterlund – Eklund2:00
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gregor – Zetterlund – Sturm4:24
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Johnsson – Barabanov11:23
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Knyzhov2:12
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pouliot13:16
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Ferraro2:59
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).