Fri, Mar 17, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 09 | 221 | 238 |
| PHI | 16 | 312 | 14 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:10PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Cam York, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:53PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Tyson Foerster, Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 13:14PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 18:21PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 2:27BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Owen Power, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 5:33PHIOwen TippettAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Nick Seeler · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 19:59BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:37PHINicolas Deslauriers: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:24BUFJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:09PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09PHIWade Allison: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09PHINicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:39PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:54PHIIvan Provorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:43PHINick Seeler: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laczynski won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:46
xG 0.33–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Greenway – Mittelstadt2:45
xG 0.01–0.03 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Olofsson – Mittelstadt6:11
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Krebs2:01
xG 0.01–0.18 (3%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Lyubushkin12:18
xG 0.82–0.45 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Bryson – Power7:32
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin5:52
xG 0.23–0.33 (40%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Tippett – Cates10:41
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Lemieux – Frost11:17
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Allison – Laczynski10:15
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hayes – Farabee – Foerster9:45
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Provorov – York14:24
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Seeler – DeAngelo12:29
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:40
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).