Fri, Mar 17, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 311 | 14 | 522 |
| WSH | 011 | 010 | 213 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54STLSammy BlaisAssists: Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:51STLJordan KyrouAssists: Jakub Vrana, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 9:25STLKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 14:36STLSammy BlaisAssists: Torey Krug, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 5:47WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Alexander Alexeyev, Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 17:14WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 18:21STLBrayden SchennENAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:58STLNick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:56WSHAliaksei Protas: Holding2 min
- P2 17:37STLKasperi Kapanen: Holding2 min
- P3 11:31STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:35STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Blais9:48
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Vrana – Kyrou – Thomas6:48
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Vrana – Kapanen3:15
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Toropchenko8:18
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug2:49
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko15:07
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Krug7:44
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:55
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Protas9:24
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Milano6:00
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome6:18
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFehérváry – Alexeyev17:14
xG 0.93–0.43 (69%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin13:44
xG 0.84–0.94 (47%)attempts 21–12goals 0–3
- Irwin – Carlsson12:47
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).