Fri, Mar 17, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Anaheim Ducks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 215 | 113 | 114 | 442 |
| ANA | 213 | 111 | 414 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:57CBJNick BlankenburgAssists: Liam Foudy · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:37ANAScott HarringtonAssists: Troy Terry, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P1 19:29CBJBoone JennerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 3:44ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Derek Grant, Simon Benoit · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 16:35CBJCole SillingerPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Emil Bemstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 2:25ANATroy TerryAssists: Colton White, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 6:43CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Michael Hutchinson · Snap, 0.28 xG4–4
- P3 17:23ANAMax JonesGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–5
- P3 19:12ANAScott HarringtonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–6
- P3 19:26ANARyan StromeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:37ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:31ANASimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00CBJErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:47ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:07ANATroy Terry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:15CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pederson won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Laine5:43
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Jenner – Laine – Marchenko5:58
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Foudy – Sillinger2:26
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Pederson – Olivier – Foudy9:24
xG 0.55–0.54 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Blankenburg14:39
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Peeke – Berni12:30
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Bayreuther – Boqvist12:40
xG 0.74–0.85 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Jones – McTavish12:22
xG 0.91–0.60 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Grant – Carrick – Comtois8:56
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Strome – Terry – Zegras2:20
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras2:07
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit12:51
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler3:02
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fowler – Harrington13:57
xG 0.67–0.66 (51%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).