Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Boston Bruins 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 116 | 215 | 27 | 538 |
| MIN | 19 | 010 | 112 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:38BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:43BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:03BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 7:17MINOskar SundqvistPPAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 12:22BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:03BOSTrent FredericENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:00BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:42BOSGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:42MINMason Shaw: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:51MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:07MINJon Merrill: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:13BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:26MINAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:56BOSHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:33BOSDmitry Orlov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:09BOSJake DeBrusk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:53MINCalen Addison: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dewar won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Bertuzzi – Frederic9:56
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:16
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha8:29
xG 0.50–0.60 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Hathaway – Nosek – Lauko7:43
xG 0.04–0.43 (9%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Clifton14:08
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton2:52
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:28
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Walker9:50
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:49
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:27
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Gaudreau – Steel8:18
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba14:08
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison9:21
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Klingberg12:37
xG 0.31–0.85 (26%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).