Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 013 | 09 | 211 | 11 | 334 |
| NSH | 15 | 08 | 16 | 01 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26NSHCody GlassAssists: Philip Tomasino, Cal Foote · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 6:17WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 6:51NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Tommy Novak, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 10:15WPGAdam LowryAssists: Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 0:55WPGNeal PionkGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:21NSHCal Foote: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:21NSHCal Foote: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:21NSHCal Foote: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:21WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:11WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:03NSHKiefer Sherwood: Holding2 min
- P2 7:57NSHDante Fabbro: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:59NSHYakov Trenin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Namestnikov – Appleton8:28
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Connor – Dubois6:27
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Ehlers7:17
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Connor5:19
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:00
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg8:02
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:30
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Sherwood – Evangelista8:41
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith12:19
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Jankowski – McCarron – Afanasyev5:26
xG 0.02–0.22 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino12:59
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 7–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Foote3:55
xG 0.33–0.11 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Gravel – Fabbro4:12
xG 0.18–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Fabbro2:37
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).