Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 015 | 010 | 08 | 033 |
| NYR | 212 | 48 | 04 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:49NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 3:54NYRVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Mika Zibanejad, K'Andre Miller · Slap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 6:43NYRChris KreiderAssists: Patrick Kane, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 8:39NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
- P2 16:38NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:01PITAlex Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:56NYRBen Harpur: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:35NYRVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:17NYRIgor Shesterkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:07NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:05PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:01NYRBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:33PITJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:16NYRBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00PITJosh Archibald: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel10:31
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Granlund – Nylander – O'Connor7:13
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – Poehling4:32
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Nylander – Poehling – O'Connor2:31
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFriedman – Joseph2:36
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:14
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson9:28
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Zibanejad – Panarin10:57
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière7:32
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Kreider – Trocheck10:32
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte6:21
xG 0.03–0.70 (5%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller12:44
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 4–0
- Mikkola – Fox10:16
xG 0.44–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Schneider2:18
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).