Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 6, Calgary Flames 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 310 | 110 | 14 | 12 | 626 |
| CGY | 110 | 314 | 112 | 02 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 1:58DALRadek FaksaAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 3:01CGYElias LindholmAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 16:08DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 10:20CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 13:56CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Rasmus Andersson, MacKenzie Weegar · Poke, 0.23 xG3–3
- P2 16:58CGYNick RitchieAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
- P2 18:10DALJason RobertsonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 9:53CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Walker Duehr, MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 12:09DALJani HakanpääAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–5
- OT 4:47DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:30CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:02DALTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P2 4:07CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:29CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:04
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Faksa – Domi – Dellandrea8:22
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:21
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 5–14goals 1–2
- Glendening – Hintz – Kiviranta2:07
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hanley9:25
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:59
xG 0.93–0.90 (51%)attempts 17–19goals 2–1
- Hakanpää – Heiskanen2:06
xG 0.03–0.18 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Mangiapane12:08
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau13:14
xG 0.90–0.80 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Lewis – Kadri – Dube7:26
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Ruzicka – Duehr5:35
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson16:32
xG 1.29–0.19 (87%)attempts 24–6goals 3–0
- Tanev – Hanifin16:16
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 1–2
- Zadorov – Stecher13:10
xG 0.52–0.92 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).