Sun, Mar 19, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 7, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 37 | 18 | 310 | 725 |
| BUF | 011 | 05 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:01BOSGarnet HathawayAssists: Jakub Zboril, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 11:40BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie Coyle, Connor Clifton · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 7:48BOSHampus LindholmAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 10:37BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.18 xG5–0
- P3 11:33BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Trent Frederic · Slap, 0.09 xG6–0
- P3 17:59BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:35BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:35BOSTomas Nosek: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:05BOSGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:02BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
- P2 9:04BUFRiley Stillman: Interference2 min
- P2 13:26BUFDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:26BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:37BOSPavel Zacha: Interference2 min
- P2 18:45BOSJakub Zboril: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:13BUFTage Thompson: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Pastrnak – Zacha9:07
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Greer – Frederic10:16
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk5:05
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Lauko10:22
xG 0.08–0.62 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:12
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 3–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy10:52
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Zboril – McAvoy2:01
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson2:59
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Mittelstadt3:09
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:24
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Tuch – Greenway – Thompson6:12
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Dahlin11:59
xG 1.07–0.68 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 0–3
- Stillman – Lyubushkin9:42
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Power13:13
xG 0.17–0.74 (19%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).