Sun, Mar 19, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 110 | 214 | 336 |
| MIN | 211 | 117 | 212 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:36MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 5:34WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 10:14MINRyan ReavesAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mason Shaw · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 3:46MINBrandon DuhaimeGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 12:33WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 13:58MINMatt BoldyUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 16:26WSHDylan StromeAssists: Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 9:34WSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:34MINSam Steel: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:00MINConnor Dewar: Holding2 min
- P2 4:42MINJonas Brodin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:53WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:16WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
- P2 15:31MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00WSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:32WSHT.J. Oshie: Instigator2 min
- P3 1:32WSHT.J. Oshie: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:32MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:32WSHT.J. Oshie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:30MINConnor Dewar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:47WSHNicklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Sheary – Strome5:26
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Milano8:44
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Protas9:55
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome2:10
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fehérváry – Alexeyev14:25
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Irwin – Carlsson7:40
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin12:41
xG 0.26–1.16 (18%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:01
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Steel9:15
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Gaudreau – Duhaime9:02
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Boldy2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:12
xG 1.09–0.17 (87%)attempts 18–4goals 3–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg13:02
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:33
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).