Sun, Mar 19, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 115 | 113 | 237 |
| VGK | 113 | 416 | 212 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15VGKPhil KesselPPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:37CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 10:35VGKJack EichelAssists: Alec Martinez, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:09VGKPavel DorofeyevPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 16:24VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Brett Howden, Shea Theodore · Bat, 0.25 xG1–4
- P2 16:57VGKJack EichelAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 4:18VGKPaul CotterAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–6
- P3 11:27VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–7
- P3 17:45CBJLiam FoudyAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:44CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:02VGKPaul Cotter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:48CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:43VGKBrett Howden: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pederson won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Foudy – Sillinger6:00
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Laine – Foudy – Marchenko2:19
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Jenner – Bemstrom – Foudy2:40
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Laine – Marchenko12:01
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Berni18:02
xG 1.38–0.76 (65%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Boqvist3:23
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Blankenburg12:42
xG 0.99–0.86 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:47
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Blueger – Amadio – Howden12:34
xG 1.06–0.59 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Cotter11:21
xG 0.42–0.75 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev11:15
xG 0.12–0.65 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo13:50
xG 0.78–0.55 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud16:06
xG 1.02–1.43 (42%)attempts 19–19goals 2–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:49
xG 0.87–1.48 (37%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).