Sun, Mar 19, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 317 | 212 | 539 |
| TBL | 110 | 16 | 08 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:30TBLAlex KillornAssists: Erik Cernak, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 6:39NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:22NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 12:02NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:51NJDNolan FooteAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 19:48NJDJesper BrattENAssists: Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:22NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P1 18:53NJDTimo Meier: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:49NJDJohn Marino: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:03TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:53NJDJesper Boqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hughes – Mercer12:41
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Sharangovich – Foote7:37
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier9:24
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 3–1
- Tatar – Palat – Boqvist10:11
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler10:48
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Severson – Bahl11:00
xG 0.92–0.69 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler4:38
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Paul – Colton – Hagel2:10
xG 0.02–0.03 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point2:48
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel7:59
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Colton8:27
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev2:44
xG 0.31–0.19 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev13:39
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).