Sun, Mar 19, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 013 | 08 | 013 | 034 |
| STL | 17 | 14 | 16 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04STLKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 10:34STLNathan WalkerAssists: Justin Faulk, Logan Brown · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 12:00STLJakub VranaAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 9:10WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:24STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24STLTorey Krug: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:24WPGKevin Stenlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24STLTorey Krug: Misconduct10 min
- P1 13:24STLTorey Krug: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 17:19STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:19WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:19STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:19WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:03WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:57WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00WPGVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Scheifele – Ehlers6:20
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Dubois7:54
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Barron4:57
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Dubois3:16
xG 0.05–0.10 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey5:27
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg8:59
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey9:55
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 16–6goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Leivo – Walker – Brown4:34
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Vrana – Kyrou – Thomas10:23
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Blais9:49
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Toropchenko10:51
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Faulk2:29
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko11:36
xG 0.51–0.44 (53%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella2:35
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).