Mon, Mar 20, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 012 | 05 | 027 |
| COL | 111 | 27 | 214 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41COLKurtis MacDermidGWGAssists: Brad Hunt, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 6:17COLDenis MalginAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 10:54COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 13:33COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Denis Malgin, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 13:47COLDenis MalginAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:23COLBowen Byram: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 7:19COLEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:54CHIJason Dickinson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Khaira
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Athanasiou – Kurashev – Reichel13:03
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Johnson – Dickinson – Raddysh12:57
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Robinson – Entwistle – Hardman8:00
xG 0.05–0.47 (10%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk11:21
xG 0.52–0.97 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Tinordi – Murphy17:35
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Jones17:10
xG 0.71–1.04 (41%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Zaitsev – Mitchell12:11
xG 0.09–0.63 (12%)attempts 10–18goals 0–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Malgin3:49
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues9:41
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Nieto – Galchenyuk – Newhook2:44
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor6:34
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard14:55
xG 1.57–0.19 (89%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Girard2:14
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram16:33
xG 0.57–0.84 (40%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).