Mon, Mar 20, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 38 | 08 | 03 | 432 |
| EDM | 111 | 218 | 115 | 18 | 552 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:08EDMNick BjugstadAssists: Warren Foegele, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:30EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 8:32SJSSteven LorentzAssists: Andrew Agozzino, Matt Benning · Bat, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 10:23SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 11:48EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 14:23SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Martin Kaut · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 16:13EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 4:45EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.44 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:24EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:30SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:09EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:11SJSDerrick Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P3 18:19SJSMario Ferraro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestAgozzino – Lindblom – Lorentz4:37
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Couture – Labanc – Gregor2:50
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gregor – Zetterlund – Sturm6:19
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Couture – Johnsson – Labanc8:47
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Knyzhov11:07
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pouliot15:09
xG 0.71–1.80 (28%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Benning – Ferraro14:45
xG 0.14–1.25 (10%)attempts 5–21goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele2:49
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto6:30
xG 0.71–0.09 (89%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Yamamoto3:35
xG 0.45–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto3:04
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:00
xG 1.32–0.48 (73%)attempts 20–11goals 3–1
- Ceci – Nurse15:05
xG 1.04–0.80 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Kulak – Broberg11:11
xG 0.79–0.75 (51%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).