Tue, Mar 21, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Washington Capitals 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 211 | 315 | 11 | 739 |
| WSH | 319 | 211 | 17 | 00 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:10WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Sonny Milano · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 16:00WSHConor ShearyAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P1 16:45CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 6:57CBJAdam BoqvistAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 10:36WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 15:01CBJJack RoslovicPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Nick Blankenburg · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P2 19:52WSHNick JensenAssists: Nic Dowd, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 6:37CBJAdam BoqvistAssists: Lane Pederson, Eric Robinson · Snap, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 8:35CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Patrik Laine, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.05 xG5–5
- P3 15:24WSHNick JensenAssists: Charlie Lindgren · Backhand, 0.05 xG5–6
- P3 19:13CBJBoone JennerAssists: Kent Johnson, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–6
- OT 2:43CBJJack RoslovicGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.38 xG7–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:57CBJNick Blankenburg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:34WSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:23WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:23CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPederson – Olivier – Robinson10:18
xG 1.03–0.30 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Bemstrom – Foudy – Sillinger10:30
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–3
- Gaudreau – Laine – Marchenko12:29
xG 0.41–0.71 (37%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Jenner – Roslovic – Johnson12:42
xG 0.40–0.76 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBoqvist – Blankenburg2:45
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Peeke – Berni6:36
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Bayreuther – Berni4:37
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Sheary – Protas9:47
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Kuznetsov – Mantha11:46
xG 0.75–0.77 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome13:12
xG 0.47–0.70 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Milano9:11
xG 0.49–0.83 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Carlsson11:43
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Alexeyev18:10
xG 0.80–1.01 (44%)attempts 15–19goals 2–2
- Jensen – Sandin17:20
xG 0.80–1.12 (42%)attempts 21–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).