Tue, Mar 21, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 119 | 19 | 116 | 344 |
| PHI | 110 | 411 | 13 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:43PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Noah Cates, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 8:42PHITravis SanheimAssists: Brendan Lemieux · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:17FLABrandon MontourAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 16:54PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Egor Zamula · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 18:05PHITravis SanheimGWGAssists: Noah Cates, Joel Farabee · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 18:55PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Tyson Foerster, Morgan Frost · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 13:49FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 17:59PHIMorgan FrostENAssists: Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:28PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P1 6:22FLAGustav Forsling: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:35PHITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:29FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:58FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:58PHIBrendan Lemieux: Instigator2 min
- P3 10:58PHIBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 10:58PHIBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:50PHINick Seeler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Lundell10:07
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen8:29
xG 0.56–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg10:39
xG 0.44–0.94 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour11:27
xG 1.12–0.56 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Gudas – Mahura10:05
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Ekblad – Forsling13:24
xG 0.93–1.01 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Allison2:33
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Tippett – Cates – Farabee10:14
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Lemieux – Frost – Foerster10:04
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Allison8:38
xG 0.72–1.19 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Zamula8:50
xG 0.93–0.39 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Provorov – York6:42
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen4:08
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).