Tue, Mar 21, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 021 | 04 | 141 |
| BOS | 211 | 015 | 09 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55OTTDylan GambrellAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:33BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.39 xG1–1
- P1 15:52BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:02BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min
- P1 10:01OTTMark Kastelic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:04OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:32BOSTyler Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:19OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:59OTTJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:55BOSCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:15
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Gambrell – Greig6:55
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto13:57
xG 0.57–0.76 (43%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic4:34
xG 0.04–0.73 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub9:45
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Chabot – Chychrun2:08
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Zub2:46
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Bertuzzi – Frederic11:10
xG 0.99–0.52 (65%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Hathaway – Nosek2:02
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:00
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha9:40
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – McAvoy2:55
xG 0.81–0.12 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – Clifton2:29
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:47
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).