Tue, Mar 21, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 08 | 014 | 01 | 1 | 330 |
| STL | 27 | 04 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Sammy Blais, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:49DETAlex ChiassonPPAssists: David Perron, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:03STLMarco ScandellaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 17:47DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Gustav Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Jakub Vrana stopped
- 2. DET Pius Suter stopped
- 3. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 4. DET David Perron stopped
- 5. STL Pavel Buchnevich stopped
- 6. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 7. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 8. DET Lucas Raymond scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:42STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:15DETOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
- P2 2:19DETAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:37STLColton Parayko: Interference2 min
- P2 17:04DETGustav Lindstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 3:12STLJake Neighbours: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Suter – Raymond7:42
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Copp – Suter3:02
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond2:09
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Czarnik – Berggren6:52
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider14:17
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Maatta – Oesterle6:37
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lindstrom8:09
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Vrana – Kapanen2:03
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vrana – Kyrou – Thomas8:13
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Blais9:46
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Kyrou – Thomas – Toropchenko3:27
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Scandella6:18
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Faulk – Krug7:33
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug3:14
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).