Tue, Mar 21, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Seattle Kraken 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 211 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 527 |
| DAL | 15 | 012 | 311 | 01 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:32SEABrandon TanevAssists: Daniel Sprong, Carson Soucy · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 3:52DALMiro HeiskanenPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:20SEADaniel SprongAssists: Brandon Tanev, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:37SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jamie Oleksiak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 3:57DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 14:03SEABrandon TanevAssists: Morgan Geekie, Carson Soucy · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 16:34DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:59DALJamie BennAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- OT 1:52SEAAdam LarssonGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:13SEAWill Borgen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29SEAJesper Froden: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:09SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:37DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:09SEAYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:18DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:53
xG 0.76–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Froden8:18
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:11
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie6:29
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen12:39
xG 0.95–0.55 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Schultz – Soucy14:17
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:23
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Faksa – Domi – Dellandrea8:38
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston11:41
xG 0.77–0.98 (44%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Glendening – Olofsson – Kiviranta4:51
xG 0.03–0.41 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:43
xG 0.40–0.80 (34%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen3:00
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Heiskanen15:49
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley4:09
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).