Tue, Mar 21, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 214 | 29 | 04 | 427 |
| VAN | 05 | 214 | 115 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01VGKPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:11VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 7:57VANJ.T. MillerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 10:22VGKTeddy BluegerAssists: Brett Howden, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 12:42VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:19VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 11:43VANPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:11VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:15VANEthan Bear: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:16VANBrock Boeser: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:57VGKShea Theodore: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:53VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:58VANAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:12VGKChandler Stephenson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:37VANQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:22
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Amadio – Howden10:42
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev10:23
xG 0.34–0.77 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Cotter10:22
xG 0.12–1.06 (10%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore12:10
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:19
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:33
xG 0.56–1.04 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDries – Kravtsov – Podkolzin5:17
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko9:41
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Joshua – Garland – Aman7:33
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser12:39
xG 0.43–0.58 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Wolanin3:38
xG 0.54–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Hughes6:12
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bear – Hughes12:18
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).