Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 09 | 19 | 128 |
| WSH | 28 | 215 | 25 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15WSHConor ShearyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:33WSHAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 1:27WSHNic DowdAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 8:12WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–4
- P3 1:04WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 3:08CHINikita ZaitsevAssists: Jason Dickinson, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 14:56WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:52WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:15CHIBuddy Robinson: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:42WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:04CHIJujhar Khaira: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:57WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:59WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:03CHIJason Dickinson: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 6:38WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:10CHITaylor Raddysh: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRobinson – Entwistle – Hardman8:39
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dickinson – Raddysh7:19
xG 0.20–0.44 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Johnson – Athanasiou – Reichel3:41
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk7:23
xG 0.11–0.65 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Jones2:15
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Murphy12:31
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Zaitsev – Kaiser13:22
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome8:51
xG 0.75–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Dowd – Sheary – Protas5:18
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Milano11:25
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Kuznetsov – Mantha9:41
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev10:15
xG 0.93–0.41 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- Carlson – Sandin6:51
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin8:50
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).