Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 14 | 210 | 19 | 01 | 0 | 424 |
| PHI | 110 | 212 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Travis Sanheim, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:35MINOskar SundqvistAssists: Jake Middleton, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:26PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Cam York, Noah Cates · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 15:41MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:16MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 19:37PHIRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Joel Farabee · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:32MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 14:16PHITyson FoersterAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Morgan Frost · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Tyson Foerster stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. PHI James van Riemsdyk scored
- 4. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 5. PHI Morgan Frost stopped
- 6. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:59PHIEgor Zamula: Holding2 min
- P2 18:37MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31PHINoah Cates: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:26PHIOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy12:42
xG 0.70–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Hartman10:51
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar10:20
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Gaudreau – Duhaime8:29
xG 0.53–0.79 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:02
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 2–2
- Dumba – Middleton3:32
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba18:09
xG 0.76–0.97 (44%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hayes – Allison9:11
xG 0.97–0.25 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Tippett – Cates – Farabee12:18
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Laughton – Bellows – Tippett2:17
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Frost – Foerster10:13
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim7:59
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Zamula4:38
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen5:30
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).