Thu, Mar 23, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 114 | 06 | 231 |
| BOS | 28 | 16 | 17 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34BOSTyler BertuzziAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jakub Zboril · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 13:38BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Connor Clifton, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:41MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Denis Gurianov, Kirby Dach · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 2:36BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 16:13MTLKirby DachPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 12:16BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Connor Clifton, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:50BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:50MTLRem Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P1 7:50BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:26MTLMike Matheson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:28BOSConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P1 14:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:00MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:00MTLJake Evans: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:08BOSA.J. Greer: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P1 17:08BOSA.J. Greer: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 4:10MTLJustin Barron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:41MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:07BOSGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:58MTLJustin Barron: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Gurianov – Dach10:12
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard7:51
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Belzile – Tierney – Pezzetta3:42
xG 0.15–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Evans – Pitlick7:06
xG 0.32–0.61 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Edmundson5:06
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–3
- Matheson – Kovacevic3:44
xG 0.12–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Kovacevic2:00
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Bertuzzi – Pastrnak2:43
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Coyle – Bertuzzi – Frederic4:24
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Frederic2:59
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk5:01
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Zboril7:55
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton2:54
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Lindholm9:56
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).