Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 39 | 07 | 422 |
| DET | 29 | 07 | 112 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 1:28DETJake WalmanAssists: David Perron, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 9:53STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Nathan Walker, Tyler Pitlick · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 3:31STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Bortuzzo · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 12:40STLSammy BlaisAssists: Colton Parayko, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 14:08STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 17:44DETAlex ChiassonAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:59DETSimon Edvinsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:37STLJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:44DETOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
- P3 7:49DETSimon Edvinsson: Holding2 min
- P3 14:20STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:20DETJordan Oesterle: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56DETDavid Perron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kapanen – Blais5:17
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours6:04
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Neighbours5:02
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Saad – Vrana – Brown6:23
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Rosen11:01
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Scandella – Parayko15:17
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk13:43
xG 0.12–0.90 (11%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Czarnik – Berggren7:52
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Perron – Larkin – Veleno2:47
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Luff – Veleno – Zadina6:33
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Kubalik – Copp – Raymond2:53
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Edvinsson12:10
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 18–8goals 1–2
- Walman – Seider14:06
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Maatta – Hagg13:48
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).