Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Seattle Kraken 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 17 | 09 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 128 |
| NSH | 03 | 110 | 05 | 06 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28SEADaniel SprongAssists: Morgan Geekie, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 14:01NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Tyson Barrie, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Matt Duchene scored
- 2. SEA Jared McCann stopped
- 3. NSH Luke Evangelista stopped
- 4. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. NSH Philip Tomasino scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:36NSHJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
- P2 14:31SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:47NSHCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:29SEABrandon Tanev: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSprong – Tanev – Geekie10:53
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Froden9:40
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:11
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:18
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:31
xG 0.83–0.38 (69%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:49
xG 0.61–0.42 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Schultz – Soucy10:16
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Sherwood – Evangelista13:14
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 21–3goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Asplund – Afanasyev6:28
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith11:46
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino13:23
xG 0.26–0.81 (24%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Foote2:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Fabbro16:31
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Lauzon – Foote13:35
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).