Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 212 | 08 | 112 | 332 |
| CGY | 114 | 012 | 118 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:23VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:02CGYMilan LucicAssists: Walker Duehr · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 5:19VGKNicolas RoyGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 12:33CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:13CGYTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P1 15:40VGKTeddy Blueger: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:57VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Stephenson – Dorofeyev3:20
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Amadio – Howden9:38
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Roy10:15
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev8:26
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore16:03
xG 1.44–0.59 (71%)attempts 22–22goals 2–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:20
xG 0.83–0.27 (76%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud16:26
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr7:42
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau14:22
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Mangiapane11:46
xG 0.59–0.88 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Kadri – Ritchie – Dube10:31
xG 0.66–1.19 (36%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov17:22
xG 1.29–0.69 (65%)attempts 29–18goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson17:30
xG 0.87–0.70 (56%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Stecher11:30
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).