Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 116 | 19 | 18 | 333 |
| ANA | 16 | 04 | 110 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41ANACam FowlerAssists: Max Jones, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 12:26WPGMason AppletonAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Adam Lowry · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:45WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 5:40ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Derek Grant · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 10:47WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Brenden Dillon, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:52ANADerek Grant: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:37WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P3 4:31WPGKyle Capobianco: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:52ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMaenalanen – Stenlund – Barron6:43
xG 0.75–0.04 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Namestnikov – Appleton8:49
xG 0.55–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers12:06
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Connor – Dubois14:23
xG 0.97–0.64 (60%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:08
xG 1.00–0.29 (78%)attempts 25–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:01
xG 0.87–0.48 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Dillon – DeMelo2:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Zegras – Nesterenko3:56
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Lundeström3:03
xG 0.22–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Nesterenko5:40
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Grant – McGinn – Megna10:15
xG 0.44–0.81 (35%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Benoit14:53
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:43
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fowler – Harrington17:18
xG 0.81–1.28 (39%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).