Fri, Mar 24, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 117 | 214 | 00 | 438 |
| CBJ | 08 | 48 | 010 | 11 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:37NYIZach PariseAssists: Hudson Fasching · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:58CBJJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Jack Roslovic, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:30NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:59CBJLiam FoudyAssists: Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 17:06CBJKent JohnsonUnassisted · Cradle, 0.00 xG2–3
- P2 17:46CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Hunter McKown · Bat, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 3:34NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 8:00NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- OT 0:40CBJBoone JennerPPGWGAssists: Adam Boqvist, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:41NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
- P2 3:42NYIZach Parise: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:52CBJEmil Bemstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:31NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall13:52
xG 1.54–0.63 (71%)attempts 27–7goals 2–1
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom10:11
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:11
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching9:33
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech17:44
xG 1.42–0.52 (73%)attempts 25–11goals 1–1
- Pulock – Romanov16:15
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Dobson – Bolduc11:59
xG 0.59–0.86 (41%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Foudy – Johnson10:25
xG 1.01–0.57 (64%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Bemstrom – Robinson – McKown2:08
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Robinson – Foudy3:01
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Pederson – Bemstrom – McKown3:37
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBayreuther – Blankenburg7:43
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Boqvist – Blankenburg2:05
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bayreuther – Berni2:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).