Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 28 | 013 | 331 |
| CGY | 27 | 113 | 210 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09CGYMacKenzie WeegarUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:13CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 14:25SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson, Andrew Agozzino · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 4:52SJSNico SturmAssists: Noah Gregor, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 5:14SJSMartin KautAssists: Steven Lorentz, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 5:39CGYWalker DuehrAssists: Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 5:45CGYNazem KadriGWGAssists: Walker Duehr, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 18:50CGYTyler ToffoliENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:30SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:34CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- P3 2:57CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 16:10CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Peterson8:47
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Kaut6:39
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Gregor – Zetterlund – Sturm9:16
xG 0.38–0.50 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Couture – Agozzino – Barabanov8:58
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – MacDonald6:43
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson11:55
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Simek10:07
xG 0.38–0.96 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Mangiapane10:14
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Duehr2:58
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr6:54
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau14:17
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov18:28
xG 1.83–0.51 (78%)attempts 26–13goals 3–0
- Gilbert – Stecher12:43
xG 1.09–0.57 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:59
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 9–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).