Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 113 | 05 | 126 |
| LAK | 114 | 19 | 26 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:28LAKAlex IafalloPPGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 18:37WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 0:27LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 18:24LAKViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Mikey Anderson, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:52WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:02LAKTrevor Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53LAKAlex Iafallo: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:53WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:10LAKBlake Lizotte: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P3 15:29LAKAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:48LAKQuinton Byfield: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Namestnikov – Appleton8:24
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Connor – Dubois9:55
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers8:29
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Barron4:31
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey4:24
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk9:38
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey10:27
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:09
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – MacEwen – Kupari5:38
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Kupari2:16
xG 0.01–0.03 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte4:30
xG 0.03–0.24 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Anderson14:12
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Roy13:26
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Edler – Walker11:00
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).