Sat, Mar 25, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
New York Rangers 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 222 | 217 | 442 |
| FLA | 212 | 09 | 113 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Anthony Duclair, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 14:46FLARyan LombergAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 8:50NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Filip Chytil, Alexis Lafrenière · Slap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 18:15NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Jacob Trouba, Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 1:22NYRPatrick KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 6:18NYRFilip ChytilGWGAssists: Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 7:00FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:29FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:15NYRPatrick Kane: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 11:41NYRPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:21FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:13FLAMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière9:28
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 3–0
- Kane – Trocheck – Panarin11:04
xG 0.99–0.35 (74%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte7:30
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Kreider – Tarasenko – Zibanejad9:50
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Fox15:38
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Harpur – Schneider8:51
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Trouba – Miller17:18
xG 1.53–1.31 (54%)attempts 22–24goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Barkov – Tkachuk9:03
xG 1.00–0.48 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Luostarinen8:34
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Staal – Lomberg – Lundell4:36
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duclair – Reinhart – Luostarinen3:22
xG 0.14–0.36 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekblad – Forsling17:38
xG 1.16–1.36 (46%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Staal – Montour15:49
xG 0.47–0.79 (37%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Gudas – Mahura9:32
xG 0.37–0.76 (33%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).