Sat, Mar 25, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 09 | 213 | 235 |
| NYI | 07 | 011 | 08 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:31BUFKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 19:28BUFJeff SkinnerENAssists: Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:45NYIPierre Engvall: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:42NYIZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:10BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:28NYINoah Dobson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka8:32
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt8:20
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:14
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson9:34
xG 0.13–0.61 (18%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Bryson8:09
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:05
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:19
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Fasching8:49
xG 0.73–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:03
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:50
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Horvat6:43
xG 0.05–0.55 (9%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech11:35
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock3:18
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson3:41
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).