Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Montréal Canadiens 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 05 | 08 | 223 |
| MTL | 28 | 417 | 27 | 832 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32CBJLane PedersonAssists: Kent Johnson, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 3:39MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:43MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 18:00CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Andrew Peeke, Gavin Bayreuther · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 0:13MTLRafael Harvey-PinardGWGAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 7:13MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Mike Hoffman, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 13:08MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans, Jesse Ylonen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
- P2 16:42MTLRafael Harvey-PinardPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 11:48MTLAlex BelzileAssists: Chris Tierney, Johnathan Kovacevic · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–7
- P3 13:49MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Jordan Harris · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:46MTLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:13MTLDavid Savard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:36CBJHunter McKown: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:10CBJAdam Boqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:02MTLJonathan Drouin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:18MTLJordan Harris: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:48CBJGavin Bayreuther: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Fix-Wolansky3:16
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Marchenko – Johnson2:30
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Bemstrom – Foudy – McKown7:28
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko7:59
xG 0.54–0.67 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Boqvist – Berni7:01
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Berni – Blankenburg2:51
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Christiansen – Blankenburg9:08
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Evans – Ylonen10:05
xG 0.76–0.09 (89%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard9:46
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 4–1
- Belzile – Tierney – Pezzetta9:21
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Drouin – Gurianov – Dach10:54
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Matheson14:34
xG 0.80–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Kovacevic – Harris12:15
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 25–9goals 4–1
- Edmundson – Barron14:37
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).