Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 3, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 29 | 012 | 328 |
| NJD | 111 | 213 | 211 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:21NJDJack HughesPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 2:24NJDJesper BrattUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 3:33NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 9:22OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 16:03OTTMark KastelicAssists: Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 3:34NJDDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:17NJDTomas TatarENAssists: Nico Hischier, John Marino · Snap, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:28NJDJohn Marino: Holding2 min
- P1 8:33OTTBrady Tkachuk: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 10:59NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:59NJDMiles Wood: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:59NJDMiles Wood: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:18NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:27OTTPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto13:41
xG 0.69–0.68 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic5:54
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Brassard – Gauthier – Gambrell6:26
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:48
xG 0.24–0.90 (21%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zub3:07
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Chabot17:24
xG 0.95–1.28 (43%)attempts 23–20goals 2–1
- Sanderson – Zub17:12
xG 0.28–0.82 (25%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes8:51
xG 1.03–0.18 (85%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer8:09
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Wood – McLeod – Sharangovich4:35
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier2:22
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Marino14:47
xG 1.24–0.34 (79%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Severson – Bahl4:17
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Bahl8:00
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).