Sat, Mar 25, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 211 | 03 | 324 |
| DAL | 113 | 04 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:28DALRyan SuterAssists: Tyler Seguin, Ty Dellandrea · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 18:24VANDakota JoshuaSHAssists: Nils Aman · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 3:57VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:30VANJack RathboneAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:01DALTy Dellandrea: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:18VANConor Garland: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:18VANEthan Bear: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:56DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:44DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:04VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:24VANDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Garland – Dries7:21
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser9:56
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Podkolzin – Kuzmenko8:09
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Joshua – Kravtsov – Aman5:30
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Rathbone4:23
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Hughes4:23
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bear – Rathbone2:30
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Domi – Hintz2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta5:25
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:19
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:15
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen11:53
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Heiskanen4:03
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:05
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).