Sat, Mar 25, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 317 | 212 | 17 | 636 |
| ANA | 211 | 07 | 17 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 2:01STLJakub VranaAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 4:05ANANikita NesterenkoAssists: Mason McTavish, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 15:14STLSammy BlaisAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 15:33STLBrayden SchennAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 1:02STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 1:31STLKasperi KapanenAssists: Torey Krug, Sammy Blais · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 0:15STLKasperi KapanenAssists: Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 5:39ANARyan StromeAssists: Trevor Zegras, Max Jones · Wrist, 0.24 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:26STLSammy Blais: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 10:21ANAMaxime Comtois: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:53STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:53STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:44STLJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:24ANAMax Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 11:44ANABrett Leason: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:00ANACam Fowler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:37STLSammy Blais: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Vrana8:33
xG 0.80–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Blais9:19
xG 1.06–0.95 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 2–2
- Kyrou – Thomas – Neighbours10:26
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko9:25
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Krug8:59
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Leddy – Parayko15:02
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Scandella – Faulk10:41
xG 1.08–1.13 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Silfverberg – Comtois8:16
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Jones – Zegras8:10
xG 0.83–0.87 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–3
- McGinn – Lundeström – Leason9:56
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Terry – Nesterenko – McTavish8:38
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – White10:51
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Fowler – Harrington15:28
xG 0.85–1.24 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Shattenkirk – Benoit11:25
xG 0.44–0.96 (31%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).