Sun, Mar 26, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 116 | 27 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 438 |
| CAR | 014 | 19 | 212 | 02 | 0 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:44CARJack DruryAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:12BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 11:46BOSJakub LaukoAssists: Tomas Nosek, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 1:37CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Martin Necas, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 3:44CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Brent Burns stopped
- 2. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
- 3. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 4. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:06BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:35CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:11BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P2 8:25CARTeuvo Teravainen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:17BOSConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestZacha – DeBrusk – Steen7:54
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Coyle – Zacha – DeBrusk2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Greer – Frederic6:57
xG 0.11–0.24 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Lauko7:16
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo13:29
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy4:28
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Carlo5:11
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook7:00
xG 0.84–0.21 (80%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Teravainen6:15
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Drury9:22
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 22–6goals 1–1
- Martinook – Aho – Necas6:13
xG 0.39–0.55 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce18:27
xG 1.62–1.06 (60%)attempts 27–17goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield14:51
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin16:01
xG 0.20–0.73 (22%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).