Sun, Mar 26, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 6, Los Angeles Kings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 36 | 25 | 622 |
| LAK | 517 | 08 | 26 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Kevin Fiala, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 2:48LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 7:35LAKAdrian KempeSHAssists: Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 8:04STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Sammy Blais · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P1 14:30LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Sean Durzi · Slap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P1 16:22LAKTrevor MoorePPAssists: Phillip Danault, Sean Durzi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 3:09STLJustin FaulkAssists: Tyler Pitlick · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P2 16:05STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Sammy Blais, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
- P2 17:35STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.18 xG4–5
- P3 4:37LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.15 xG4–6
- P3 8:11STLKasperi KapanenAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.07 xG5–6
- P3 8:50LAKDrew DoughtyPPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.04 xG5–7
- P3 19:11STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.13 xG6–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:41STLMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:04LAKMikey Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:53STLNick Leddy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40STLNathan Walker: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00STLPavel Buchnevich: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:27STLNick Leddy: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:11LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:15STLSammy Blais: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas2:37
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko8:33
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Vrana11:43
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Kyrou – Thomas – Neighbours8:22
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Rosen4:36
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Leddy – Faulk3:31
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Krug – Parayko4:57
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson14:11
xG 1.30–0.04 (97%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Vilardi – Iafallo11:05
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:16
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Kupari7:41
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy16:53
xG 0.98–0.16 (86%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Walker – Durzi12:54
xG 0.88–0.24 (78%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson18:04
xG 0.76–0.85 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).