Mon, Mar 27, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Seattle Kraken 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 013 | 013 | 110 | 136 |
| MIN | 15 | 27 | 28 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:17MINJake MiddletonAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:38MINMatt BoldyPPGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 14:59MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 0:50MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 10:21MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jon Merrill · Snap, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 11:00SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Morgan Geekie, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:34SEAJaden Schwartz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:16MINAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P1 15:32MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:08SEAVince Dunn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:54SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:55MINConnor Dewar: Holding2 min
- P3 2:55SEARyan Donato: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:55MINConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:10SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:41SEAYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:41MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Geekie11:04
xG 1.16–0.03 (98%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev7:03
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:01
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers11:31
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:12
xG 1.04–0.46 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 1–2
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:49
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Soucy11:28
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:53
xG 0.83–0.49 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 3–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar3:30
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Gaudreau – Duhaime8:25
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Hartman10:42
xG 0.01–0.69 (2%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Dumba15:06
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton14:31
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 3–0
- Goligoski – Merrill14:21
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).