Mon, Mar 27, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 215 | 117 | 544 |
| ANA | 111 | 09 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:08ANADerek GrantAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:43COLBowen ByramUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:52COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 2:05COLJack JohnsonAssists: Denis Malgin, Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 3:46COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 4:22COLSamuel GirardPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Bowen Byram · Slap, 0.15 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:27COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:08ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:23COLLogan O'Connor: Interference2 min
- P3 4:06ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:41COLJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:32ANAMax Jones: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Rodrigues – Newhook12:11
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Nieto – Malgin7:51
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor6:56
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen14:35
xG 0.70–0.95 (42%)attempts 19–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Johnson12:05
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram14:59
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar15:38
xG 0.80–0.97 (45%)attempts 20–14goals 2–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Silfverberg – Comtois11:07
xG 1.06–0.27 (79%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras6:54
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Nesterenko – McTavish8:30
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- McGinn – Megna – Lundeström8:48
xG 0.08–0.62 (11%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Harrington16:14
xG 1.22–0.83 (59%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
- Fowler – White2:56
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit13:49
xG 0.56–0.90 (38%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).