Tue, Mar 28, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 19 | 14 | 223 |
| BOS | 08 | 012 | 116 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:11NSHCody GlassAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 18:41NSHCole SmithENGWGAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P3 19:58BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:52NSHLuke Evangelista: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:50BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:18NSHJeremy Lauzon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P1 17:31BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:58NSHDante Fabbro: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 1:40NSHCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:59BOSDavid Pastrnak: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:07NSHEgor Afanasyev: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:33BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jankowski – McCarron – Asplund5:48
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:27
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Glass – Tomasino – Afanasyev8:23
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith6:56
xG 0.06–0.51 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gravel – Foote9:02
xG 0.17–0.58 (22%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Fabbro13:16
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Barrie – Lauzon11:47
xG 0.12–0.56 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak5:21
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha3:52
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Bertuzzi – Frederic8:31
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Zacha – DeBrusk4:03
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Clifton9:52
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo10:24
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – Clifton2:46
xG 0.27–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).