Tue, Mar 28, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 5, St. Louis Blues 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 213 | 112 | 212 | 00 | 537 |
| STL | 217 | 38 | 05 | 11 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06VANQuinn HughesAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:50STLAlexey ToropchenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:48STLJustin FaulkAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Sammy Blais · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:41VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 7:24STLJakub VranaAssists: Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 12:08STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 13:36STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P2 18:28VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 12:18VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Elias Pettersson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 19:06VANQuinn HughesAssists: Brock Boeser, Dakota Joshua · Slap, 0.02 xG5–5
- OT 0:28STLJakub VranaGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:57STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:24VANKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:46VANDakota Joshua: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:17STLJakub Vrana: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:40STLJordan Kyrou: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser13:06
xG 1.03–0.52 (66%)attempts 24–9goals 1–2
- Joshua – Pettersson – Kuzmenko11:04
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Studnicka – Kravtsov – Aman6:50
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Garland – Aman4:31
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes10:58
xG 1.18–0.50 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Myers – Brisebois4:30
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brisebois – Hronek7:55
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kapanen – Blais13:12
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko9:33
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Vrana13:17
xG 0.84–0.89 (48%)attempts 18–21goals 1–0
- Kyrou – Thomas – Neighbours11:00
xG 0.37–0.98 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko2:57
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Parayko5:17
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella2:18
xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).